Month: February 2008

Can value investing work in China market?

Post author By stlplace
Post date February 23, 2008
No Comments on Can value investing work in China market?

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Last Updated on February 23, 2008 by stlplace

USA today has an interesting article regarding Chinese investors (speculator more precise) learning a tough lesson in the domestic stock market. The article used two example to explain:

China stock exchange pic
(Picture source: USAtoday.com)

In October (2007), Wang, 45, invested $2,800 in a Beijing real estate firm, chosen, Wang explains, “because it’s called an ‘Olympic stock,’ and ought to do well.”
…
But now Wang’s beginner’s portfolio is down almost $1,000, over three times her previous monthly salary.
…

Example 2 (quote from the article) again:
…

Tags China-Stock-Market, Value-investing, Warren-Buffett

Stocks

Crazy market and GSIT

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Last Updated on February 23, 2008 by stlplace

Another crazy day, the market traded mostly lower today, until 3:30 PM EST, CNBC reported Ambac will announce it raised capital earlier next week. It seems everyone just can not get enough stocks since then, all the US indices reversed the downward trend and closed higher.

For me, the feeling is like “hew”, my little portfolio turned from down more than $300 to positve! Amazing. I think this (bear) market is tough for the newbies. Honestly, I have been in market for almost 5 years, and I have learned the most in last 6 months.

GSIT: no liquidity premium
GSIT, GSI Techonolgy is a small Very Fast SRAM maker. I have held a few hundreds shares since its IPO. The stock traded heavily today. I don’t know the exact reason. It could be some insiders are selling. Or maybe some institutions are buying. GSIT is one of my disappointment last year. Initially I hope to make some quick money on its IPO. But I was too greedy and end up owning it for almost a year. The company reported two bad quarters until most recent quarter, in which it beats expectation, and issued better outlook.

Tags GSIT, NINE, thinly-traded-stock

Saint Louis

Random thoughts

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Last Updated on February 24, 2008 by stlplace

Stars on Ice
We saw Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo yesterday, very nice. Both the show and the couple. By the way, a little advertisement, my wife had a nice write up for the event.

Stars on Ice pic

Like and don’t like about snow/ice storm
Don’t like
1) Clean up my car (I don’t have garage);
2) The normal 15 min commute takes one hour;
3) Almost fall while walking, have to take baby steps sometime;

Tags ice-storm-car-tips, stars-on-ice

Stocks

RIM, Mindray

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Last Updated on February 22, 2008 by stlplace

Crocs broke my heart; RIM made my day.

While CROX continued his downward spiral, today Research in Motion (RIM, Nasdaq: RIMM) is up 8% on the news it will beat its forecasted subscriber growth. Now I regret I did the swing last week, in which I cashed in some gain, and reduced the number of shares (RIMM) I hold. I only have a small position of RIMM, and I did not go ahead and chase it today. Thought its exposure to US market and the slowdown of US economy is still a concern. I understand the company is diversify both geographically and productwise (from business to consumer, the Blackberry Pearl).

I decided to get some Mindray instead. As the unoffical rule says: the stock goes down after Major bought it. Yes, it did: I bought at $34.87, and it’s about 34.20 now.

Mindray will report Q4 2007 earning on 8PM EST March 5. (source)

Mindray product pic

Dial-in details for the earnings conference call are as follows:

Hong Kong: +852-3002-1672
US Toll Free: +1-800-299-9086
International: +1-617-786-2903
Passcode for all regions: Mindray

Tags Mindray, MR, RIM, RIMM

Master Series

Confidence level

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Last Updated on March 15, 2008 by stlplace

(Update March 15) Remove Bill Miller from the Masters list. His holding Countrywide Financials, Sprint, Bear Stern blew up one after another. Although his 15 years streak to beat S&P is admirable, but 3 strikes in a row, not that impressive. I gave him a rating of 4.5, between good fund managers and masters 🙂

It also shows how tough to be a fund manager. I think it’s wise for Lynch to retire after 14 some years.

(Original)
1) Yahoo Message Board, many other stock bbs (the world renown mit for one).

2) Many articles on Seekingalpha etc.; many articles written by bloggers and financial journalists (people who make a living on writing or talking, not on investing). Jim Cramer and guys on Fast Money (blog dedicated to them) should also fall into this category. Sometimes I found we can almost use those as a reverse indicator: for instance, if Cramer says buy, take it as a sell 🙂

Shui Pi, the famous financial journalist and chief editor of ChinaTimes probablly should get 2.5.

3) Sell side analysts; Management with lots of stock options. Sell side analyst makes a living by help selling stocks. Management with stocks options tend to focus on stock price in the short term.

Tags bill-miller, Buffett, Lynch

Stocks

CROX: bull case, bear case

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Last Updated on February 20, 2008 by stlplace

I decided to take some CROX off the table. Too much controversials on the stock after yesterday’s earning report. Here are some of the bull case and bear case.

Bull case
Management is optimistic on the international expansion, and new products (jibbitz, Bite, OceanMind etc.), but which company’s management is not bullish on their company’s growth prospect?

Analysts fell the valuation is more attractive now, mostly from PE, 2008/9 growth rate point of the view.

Bear case
Revenue sequentially decline: Q4 2007 vs. Q3 2007 ($224 m vs. $256 m), this is reverse of trend compared to 06. Crocs out of fashion in the US?

Tags Crocs, CROX, inventory, solesunited

Economy

EQ of US presidential hopeful

Post author By stlplace
Post date February 19, 2008
No Comments on EQ of US presidential hopeful

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Last Updated on February 20, 2008 by stlplace

For fun, please note I am not endorsing any of the canidate…

Economy policy using Google
I googled “Obama/Hillary/McCain economy policy” and here is what I got. Note I only looked at the results from their campaign web site (click on the the names below to see the search results).

Hillary: she does not has a full page on economy, here is the best I could get (an old speech). Her web page has lots of issues but does not single out economy.

McCain: here is the economy stimulus plan page.

Obama: He got a full page on this issue.

I think most people agree Hillary has the most experience on Economy, but her web page is no good (at least from Google search perspective).

Presidents influence on economy

Tags economy-policy, search-by-google, US-presidential-election

earning

Second shoe dropped at CROX

Post author By stlplace
Post date February 19, 2008
No Comments on Second shoe dropped at CROX

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Last Updated on February 24, 2008 by stlplace

To be fair, Crocs reported a good quarter for Q4 2007. But, the outlook did not please the street, let me quote Reuters:

The company based in Niwot, Colorado, whose vibrantly colored shoes, clogs and boots have become a fad in recent years, also backed its 2008 profit outlook of $2.70 and revenue view of $1.16 billion.

Analysts were expecting a profit of $2.72, before items, on revenue of $1.16 billion.

The stock dropped about 10% after hour. I am not sure if it will recover like AMZN did after its earning couple weeks ago. As I was listening the Conferece call, one analyst asked if people under-appreciated Crocs’ infrustructure, he even said Crocs is like a global supply chain company happens to make and distribute shoes. Interesting point, Crocs has 5,000 employee worldwide as of now.

Tags Crocs, CROX, earning

Stocks

Reading Barrons Feb 16 2008

Post author By stlplace
Post date February 19, 2008
No Comments on Reading Barrons Feb 16 2008

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Last Updated on February 19, 2008 by stlplace

Starting this year I got the Barrons’ subscription from my frequent flier miles (Northwest).

Barrons cover page
(picture from charleslockwood.com)

1) Joe Rosenberg is an investment guru, and he shared his insights on various stocks from MSFT, YHOO to PFE. He likes MSFT the stock, but he does not like the decision of buying YHOO, and he thinks Baller’s decision does not make sense financially. (P. 34)

He does not like PFE at this moment. Same as yours truely 🙂

Tags Barrons, Buffett, Joe-Rosenberg

gadgets

iPhone, Blackberry

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Last Updated on February 24, 2008 by stlplace

Missing iPhones are found in China
According to InStat, a market research company, there are about 400,000 unlocked iPhone in China. Most of them are purchased in the US, unlocked and shipped to China later. An interesting side point is Chinese (smart phone) users are mostly for entertainment, while the US users focus on business functionality (email, etc., one reason Blackberry was so successful). Chinese translation from Xinhua:

根据市场分析企业In-Stat本周五最新发布的报告，全球共有80到100万台iPhone被解锁，使用在非苹果运营商合作伙伴的网络中。而其中仅中国就占到几乎半数。…

RIM lawsuit

Tags apple, blackberry, China-mobile, iPhone, Motorola